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Somalia

Somalia Market Data Update: March 2017 Data (Issued April 25, 2017)

Attachments

Highlights

Inflation:

SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased (2-6%) in most of the SoSh using areas in March 2017 month-on-month due to mild increases in red sorghum prices.
The CPI rose (15-35%) more sharply compared to a year ago due to the same reasons mentioned above.

SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI declined (7%) month-on-month due to mild decline in the price of red sorghum. Annual comparison indicates mild increase (6%) due to mild increases in cereal (red sorghum) and/or imported food items prices compared to last year.

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) indicated mild to moderate monthly changes in most regions of the country with the exception of Banadir (Bakara market) where moderate (12%) depreciation was recorded due to reduced post-election supply of USD. Annual comparison exhibited mixed trend patterns; specifically, mild (less than 10%) appreciation was recorded in most of the southern regions; moderate to high (10-40%) depreciations were recorded in central and northeast regions due to printing of local notes in the regions.
SISh-using areas: The SISh depreciated (9-10%) against the USD in March 2017 both month-onmonth and year-on-year due to printing of local currency notes in the region.

Local cereal prices either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (by less than +/- 10%) in most regions of the country with exception of Lower Shabelle where prices increased sharply (45%) month-on-month in March 2017 attributable to increased demand in the region and neighboring regions like Banadir. Annual comparison indicates higher prices for local grains in all regions of the country with the highest increase recorded in Bay (124%) attributable to reduced supply due to the poor Deyr 2016 cereal production.

Prices of imported food(rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild (less than +/- 10%) monthly changes in local currency terms in March 2017 in most regions of the country. Year-on-year comparison indicates mild to moderate price increases in most regions of the country for most of the food imports in March 2017.

Livestock prices exhibited mixed trend patterns; specifically, increases (mild to moderate) in goat and camel prices were recorded in most parts of the country due to reduced supply of saleable livestock; exceptions are in Mudug, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Sannag regions where goat, camel and/or cattle prices declined month-on-month in March 2017 due to further deterioration of livestock body conditions. Milk prices (camel and cattle) generally exhibited monthly increases in most regions of the country due to limitted supply. Compared to a year ago, livestock prices for all species were significantly lower across the regions of the country in March 2017 attributable to deteriorated livestock body conditions. On the other hand, milk prices (camel and cattle) increased from moderate to high levels annually in most regions of the country in March 2017.

Labor (unskilled) wageseither remained relatively stable or changed mildly (by less than +/- 10%) month-on-month in most regions of the country in March 2017. Annual comparison indicates declines of labour wages in most regions of the country with the highest decline (49%) reported in Banadir (Bakara market). The declines is attributed to increased competition for available labour in urban areas as a result of increased in-migration from drought affected rural areas.

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and local cereals either remained stable month-on-month or changed at mild rates (by 1-2kg of cereals/ daily labor wage) in most parts of the country in March 2017. ToT between local quality goat and cereals exhibited mild to moderate monthly increases in most regions of the country except Togdheer region where the ToT declined by 12Kgs/local goat as a result of decline in local quality goat prices. Annual comparison indicates the ToTs are lower across the country due to declines in labor wage rates and goat prices and/or increase in local grain prices compared to a year ago (March 2016).