Airlines cut capacity on Canada to Florida flights after Trump drama | Column

Scott Lamb says he’s about as pro-American as a Canadian can get. He grew up in a border town near Buffalo. His dad is a dual citizen. He has a close cousin in Vero Beach and has often traveled to the United States, including to Florida.

Not anymore.

After President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to turn Canada into the 51st state and referred to the prime minister as “governor,” Lamb vowed to stay away. He had planned to visit Naples and Los Angeles, but that was before the insults and tariff drama.

“I am writing to you from Bermuda!,” he said when I contacted him this week. Last month, he was in the Cayman Islands, and the month before that, he took another trip to Bermuda. He loved it so much that he returned with his mom this week.

“I won’t go back to the U.S. until some sort of sanity prevails,” he said.

Six weeks ago, I wrote a pair of columns about Canada-U.S. relations. More than 200 people contacted me, almost all of them Canadians. Like Lamb, every one of them said they would stay away from Florida and stop buying U.S. goods, at least as much as possible.

Two hundred people hardly speak for a whole country, and those who take the time to email a newspaper columnist are often the most resolute. However, initial travel numbers are trickling out and backing up the anecdotes.

Airlines flying between Tampa International Airport and Canadian cities reduced seat capacity by 12% for April compared to projections made in January, airport officials told me.

Other Florida airports recorded bigger drops. Data from airline tracker Cirium indicates that seat capacity between Canada and Miami International Airport declined by about 15% on average from April to June, and by more than 20% for the same period at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International.

The CEO of WestJet, Canada’s second-largest airline, said sales for flights between Canada and the U.S. were down 25%. WestJet recently eliminated routes from Edmonton to Orlando and Calgary to New York City.

The aviation news site Simple Flying reported last week that two smaller airlines, Air Transat and Flair Airlines, had both reduced their Canada-U.S. flights by more than 20% between March and October compared to a year earlier.

Some industry insiders believe demand for U.S.-bound flights from Canada will decline further because many Canadians traveling in the next few weeks booked their trips before Trump insulted the country. They risk losing their money if they cancel, so some will come despite feeling torn. As the year progresses and that financial incentive wanes, more Canadians may choose to book trips to other countries — or stay in Canada.

For instance, aviation analytics firm OAG recently compared last year’s bookings to what’s happening now. The conclusion: From April through October, bookings on Canadian routes to the U.S. are down a whopping 70%.

Air Canada, the nation’s largest airline, rebuffed OAG’s report, saying it had only experienced a “softening in the transborder market.” On Monday, Air Canada officials followed up with the news that the airline’s Canada-U.S. flights were down 10%.

“Am I concerned?” said Air Canada Chairperson Vagn Sørensen during Monday’s annual shareholder meeting. “Yes, definitely, I’m concerned.”

Canadian anger

We can argue over the exact figures, but the consensus is to expect fewer Canadian bookings than last year.

That doesn’t surprise Mathieu Germain, who lives in Nova Scotia and used to visit Florida. He had planned a trip to Orlando’s Disney World. Instead, Germain traveled within Nova Scotia and also recently visited London, Paris, Rome, Pompeii and Capri. He plans to buy vacation property in France, not the United States. He tries not to buy U.S.-made products and has gone so far as to cancel his Amazon account, a company founded by American billionaire Jeff Bezos.

Germain has no intention of returning to the United States if Canada continues to be treated so poorly.

“I would estimate that about 80% of our friends and co-workers feel the same way,” he said.

It’s easy to assume that Canadians are just blustering, that the anger will wear off and their resolve will erode. Florida’s sunshine and beautiful beaches will beckon. Disney World will be too much to resist. Kids care a lot more about Mickey Mouse and Universal Studios’ Revenge of the Mummy ride than they do about political jabs or the price of butter and cars.

However, Germain, like the others I contacted for this column, said Trump’s insults and the tariff war galvanized Canadians in a way not experienced in decades. They felt more like one country, even more so than after winning an Olympic gold medal in hockey, which might as well be Canada’s shared religion. One nonagenarian said the country felt more united than in the lead-up to World War II.

Just two months ago, Canadians appeared ready to sweep out the ruling Liberal Party, which was trailing by 20 percentage points in the polls. Now, in a stunning turn, the Liberals could hang onto power in the April 28 federal election.

A lot has happened in recent weeks, including the resignation of unpopular Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Mark Carney, who took Trudeau’s place as head of the Liberal Party, also decided to eliminate a contentious consumer carbon tax. But the Trump drama appears to be playing its part. A recent survey found that “the biggest issue facing Canadian voters was who can form a government best equipped to deal with the Trump administration and its trade tariffs,” the Montreal Gazette reported.

“(We are) a more resolved, passionate and strong Canada,” said Germain, who felt compelled to contribute money to a political party for the first time.

Calgary resident Robert Stack said Trump’s initial remarks a few months ago united Canadians. The goings-on over the last few weeks solidified those feelings.

Canadians are wary of being stopped by U.S. immigration officials. Many are aware that other countries, including Germany, Denmark, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, have issued warnings to their citizens that even minor errors in documents could result in detention. In one high-profile case, Immigration and Customs Enforcement held a Canadian businesswoman for two weeks. She had frequently traveled between the countries without incident.

“Besides anger, there’s now a bit of fear,” Stack said.

The good news is that none of the airlines flying into Tampa International Airport from Canadian cities have eliminated the route. An airport spokesperson also confirmed that the new Tampa-to-Vancouver flights on WestJet and Air Canada are still scheduled to begin in June.

Over the past year, Porter Airlines added flights to Canada from Tampa. The extra capacity should help stabilize the number of Canadian passengers that flow through the airport.

Chris Minner, the airport’s executive vice president of marketing and air service development, added that more than 48% of the airport’s passenger traffic originates in the Tampa Bay area, compared to less than 35% in Orlando and 40% in Miami. The higher number of local outbound passengers makes the airport less susceptible to industry-wide dips in passengers from other countries.

“The resilience of Tampa Bay’s population can help airlines thrive,” he said. “For years, airlines have recognized Tampa Bay’s propensity to generate significantly more outbound passengers based on our strong business market and the demographics of our region.”

What the future holds

Where is this headed?

Before the drama, Canadians made the most international visits to the United States. The U.S. Travel Association estimated a 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses. Florida could feel the most impact, given that more Canadians visit our state than any other.

The average international visitor spent $1,295, compared with $799 for domestic tourists, according to the state’s recent analysis. Some studies show Canadians stay longer and spend more than domestic tourists, but they don’t stay as long as other international visitors. Either way, a significant downturn in Canadian visitors would hurt Florida’s international tourism.

However, people from other states — not other countries — make more than 90% of the visits to Florida. Canadians make up less than 2.5%, so Florida’s massive tourism economy should be able to weather the boycott. The size of the hit will depend on whether Canadians stay away in large numbers and for how long?

Stay tuned. We will know the answer in just a few months.