This week, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on most goods being imported to the U.S., with import taxes ranging from 10% to as high as 54%.
These tariffs are expected to drive up prices for American consumers on products such as automobiles and car parts, including foreign cars and those made locally in the U.S., as well as electronics, appliances, clothing and furniture.
While not every shopper is in the market right now for bigger-ticket items like a car or a TV, few consumers will be able to ignore the impact of the tariffs at the supermarket.
“Grocery prices will go up,” Andreas Waldkirch, a professor of economics at Colby College specializing in international trade, tells TODAY.com.
And lower-income Americans will feel it the most, as they are more dependent on products from countries hit the hardest by Trump’s tariffs and have less disposable income to absorb higher prices.
Shoppers will feel the effects soon, as early as next week for some items, Waldkirch says, thanks to the short shelf life of so many grocery goods.
“Because a lot of food, of course, is pretty perishable, the grocers can’t really go out and stock up” on products like fruit, vegetables, and fresh meat, Waldkirch explains — unlike car dealers, for example, who may be able to stockpile inventory to cushion them in the short term as tariffs take effect.
And even before the newly announced tariffs kick in, some grocers may preemptively raise costs, he says.
“That’s one of those principles of economics, right, where you don’t necessarily wait until costs go up because if you anticipate it, you might as well do it now,” he says.
Waldkirch also notes that it’s not just food itself that will be affected by the new tariffs, but food packaging, which can in turn drive up grocery prices.
How much will grocery prices go up?
The newly announced tariffs range from 10% for some countries to well over 40% for other trade partners.
But does this mean the shelf prices of grocery products from those countries will rise by the same percentage point?
Not exactly, says Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI, The Food Industry Association.
“It won’t be a sort of one-to-one at the store where you say, ‘Well, this product comes from China, so we know it’s going to get hit with the 54% tariff. So prices will go up 54%,’” he says.
Rather, the amount prices will rise depends on the cost of separate components involved in creating the item — whether that’s the individual ingredients involved in creating, say, a frozen pizza, or else the cost of the pizza’s box and wrapper.
In the short term, Waldkirch says retailers may be able to absorb at least part of the tariffs to avoid passing along the cost increase to consumers.
However, unlike a tech giant like Apple, grocery stores have razor-thin margins and will only be able to absorb the extra costs “for a limited time,” he says.
“Over the course of the next few weeks or months, you will see most of it coming through the hit that the retailers or grocers can take,” he says. “It’s only so much.”
Waldkirch also predicts that grocery stores will raise prices first before implementing other cost-cutting measures such as cutting staff or reducing hiring.
“I think the first thing that they have to do is really to raise prices and then gauge what is the reaction of shoppers,” he says.
What kinds of grocery items will be affected?
While there may be some exceptions, and some products hit harder than others, the new tariffs will affect grocery items across the board, Waldkirch says.
Here are some types of grocery products that will likely see a price increase in the coming days, weeks and months:
Fresh fruits and vegetables
Many popular items in the produce aisle could soon become more expensive due to the tariffs recently announced by Trump.
Sixty percent of all fresh fruit and 38% of fresh vegetables sold in the U.S. were imported from other countries as of 2021, according to the USDA.
About half of this imported produce is supplied by Mexico, which, along with Canada, sidestepped this latest round of tariffs. Because of this, some items that are mainly imported from Mexico, such as avocados and tomatoes, may be shielded from huge price increases.
The exclusion of Mexico and Canada from the new tariffs is the “silver lining” of this week’s announcement, Harig says.
However, the large volume of produce imported from other countries will face new tariffs, which could result in higher prices passed on to consumers.
For example, Guatemala and Ecuador, the leading importers of bananas and plantains to the U.S. in 2023, according to the USDA, have each been hit with a new 10% tariff.
Guatemala is also the third-largest importer of fresh and chilled cauliflower and broccoli to the U.S., followed by China, which has been hit with 34% tariffs, and Turkey, which faces a 10% tariff.
Peru and Chile, which export significant quantities of produce into the U.S., including fresh berries and grapes, according to the USDA, are also facing new 10% tariffs.
Grocery stores may be able to switch to domestic suppliers to replace some foreign produce imports, Waldkirch says.
“A lot of our stuff comes from California or Florida, and so the impacts there would be much more limited because you can switch, say, from foreign oranges to Florida oranges,” he explains.
However, these substitutes are not possible for products that are either not grown in the U.S., or else not grown at a high enough volume to meet demand.
Coffee, tea and spices
That daily caffeine hit could soon be pricier for U.S. consumers. Switzerland, the top importer of roasted and instant coffee to the U.S., according to the USDA, has been hit by a 31% tariff.
Other leading importers of roasted and instant coffee are also affected, including Italy, which will be hit by the new 20% tariff imposed on the European Union. Brazil, the top importer of unroasted coffee beans, also faces a new 10% tariff.
Tea drinkers will also likely feel the effects.
Japan and China, the leading importers of tea and mate to the U.S., have been slapped with 24% and 34% tariffs, respectively.
Seasoning your food could also soon grow more expensive. India, the top importer of spices into the U.S., has been hit with a 26% tariff, followed by Vietnam, which faces a new tariff of 46%.
“A lot of the spices we grow that we eat ... just aren’t grown in America,” Harig says, pointing to cinnamon as an example. “There’s a colleague of mine who likes to joke that we’ve sort of gone back to the 14th century, with the great spice trade issues.”
Online, bakers are expressing concern about how the price of vanilla could skyrocket when it’s already the second most expensive spice in the world. Madagascar is responsible for more than three-quarters of U.S. imports of vanilla, and Trump just hit the country with a 47% tariff.
Meat and seafood
Shoppers could pay more for red meat thanks to the tariffs. While Canada is the largest importer to the U.S. of fresh and frozen red meats, three other top suppliers, Australia, New Zealand and Brazil, have each been hit by 10% tariffs, which could translate to higher meat prices for shoppers.
The new 10% tariff on Chile and the 26% tariff on India may also affect how much consumers pay for fish and shellfish. After Canada, those countries are the U.S.’s two biggest importers of fish and shellfish, according to the USDA.
“About 70 to 80% of the U.S. seafood food supply is imported, and so that is not a number that the U.S. domestic industry can plug,” Harig says. “So you’re going to see that the cost of the seafood department go up.”
Chocolate and candy
Chocolate products could grow more expensive thanks to new tariffs on the leading importers of cocoa beans to the U.S., including Côte d’Ivoire, which was hit with a 21% tariff, and Ecuador, which faces a new 10% tariff.
Other sugary treats could also be affected. While Mexico and Canada are the top importers of “sugars, other sweeteners, and confections,” according to the USDA, other leading sugar and confection importers, including Brazil, Turkey and Germany, have all been hit by tariffs ranging from 10% to 20%.
