Murray's Mailbag: Why is the Pac-12 struggling to find a required eighth football school?

My Little League season starts Tuesday, and I used that as the hook to Sunday's Monday Mailbag Twitter post. Yet, I got no questions about Washoe Little League's Triple-A Angels and a bunch of questions on other topics, including the Pac-12. Apparently Pac-12 news is bigger than Reno Little League news. Who knew? Thanks, as always, for the questions.

The Pac-12 is struggling to find a required eighth football member because it bungled the initial hostile takeover of the Mountain West. The Pac-12 either assumed it could get a couple of American Athletic Conference schools without issue after poaching the MW or didn't realize handing the MW more than $100 million in required exit fees/poaching penalties would arm that league with capital to hold its remaining members in place. Either way, it was a major screwup, and I say this as somebody who thinks the Pac-12 still has the major upper hand on the MW post-2026 after these changes take place. But the Pac-12 either had to know for sure it was getting a couple of American Athletic schools or it could get two more MW members without issue. It's been unable to do either and is now dragging this thing out through the courts to try and hardball its way to a better position.

As is, the new Pac-12 includes Washington State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State plus Gonzaga as a non-football member. FBS conferences require eight football teams to play at that level. The Pac-12 has seven. And the league's media-right deal seems unlikely to be rich enough to land Memphis, Tulane, Texas-San Antonio or any of the attractive American Athletic schools, who are already getting a TV deal in line with what the Pac-12 is expected to get without incurring the major travel costs (and exit-fee money) associated with a conference move.

Meanwhile, the remaining MW schools are locked into a grant of media rights that make a move to the Pac-12 untenable financially unless the MW crumbles or can't pay the initial $61 million promised in exit fees/poaching penalties. With the MW owed $145 million in such fees, collecting at least $61 million is probable. My over/under is $100 million. So, if schools from the MW and American are out and the Pac-12 won't take FCS programs (that's been reported), the options are Texas State (from the Sun Belt) and New Mexico State (from whatever the hell football league the Aggies play in). Those are not good options, which has led to this stalemate since Texas State is apparently unwilling to take less than a full share of media-rights money. If that means New Mexico State gets invited to the Pac-12, hilarity will ensue. But I don't think the Pac-12 television deal is being hung up by this issue. Short of getting Memphis and Tulane, the other TV markets that could enter the Pac-12 are interchangeable.

As for Mike and Ike, I still enjoy them. They've survived DOGE cuts.

I don't see a Mountain West merger happening since the Pac-12's whole goal the last several months has been to separate from the lower-end Mountain West schools. The Pac-12 isn't going to waive the white flag and let all those schools back in unless the media-rights offer is terrible. As for Texas State, the school's president, Kelly Damphousse, had a weird Twitter post with some gross-looking soup that said he'd not be happy with a half a bowl of soul, which was interpreted as the school not being willing to take a half share of the Pac-12 media money. If that's the case, it seems like New Mexico State on a less-than-half share or Texas State on a full share. If those are the options, you give Texas State the full share. Those school has been my guess for the last few months, so I'll stick with Texas State to the Pac-12 as the final outcome. Honestly, the Pac-12 should just tell Gonzaga to start a football team to get the conference to eight on the gridiron.

I wrote a full breakdown of what the House settlement and its three main tenets will mean to Nevada and schools of its ilk here. My summation:

What does this all mean? It means Nevada's costs are going way up. That's not ideal given the Wolf Pack has historically struggled to break even financially, running a deficit of almost $600,000 in the most recently completed fiscal year, which is an average result for the last 15 seasons. If the Wolf Pack were to fund all three major tenets of the House settlement — the back pay, the revenue sharing and the additional scholarships costs — that'd be an extra $27.75 million in costs per year. That's not happening. No Group of 6 school can afford that. But the Wolf Pack will be on the hook for that $550,000 in back pay and is persistent in sharing revenue, potentially up to that $4.4 million mark. It would be wise to increase some of its scholarship allotment, too, so you could see a bump there. You're probably looking at an additional $5 million in expenses if you want to stay at your current level of financial competitiveness in the MW.

Essentially, Nevada's cost of doing business, even on the low-end scale is going up $5 million, or 10 percent of the overall budget. I don't know how the Wolf Pack increases revenue by 10 percent to match that additional cost. I don't think Nevada does either. It's a tough deal. Now, this is if the House deal is codified as presented. There was a hearing on the case today, and it sounds like there are some objections. So, its form and application could change.

I never asked, but it's important to remember this arena is being built to host minor-league hockey and college basketball games. Those games would not draw 12,000 to 15,000 fans, so building a 15,000-seat arena in the hope you might be able to host the NCAA Tournament once every six years or so is not smart. This arena is built off the Acrisure Arena design in Southern California, and that seats 11,000. I don't know how much more it would cost going from 10,000 seats to 15,000 seats, but I would guess $50 million-plus. That's not a worthwhile investment in the hopes of getting NCAA Tournament games. You have to be cognizant of your fan base, as then-UNR president Joe Crowley was in the early 1980s when Lawlor Events Center was being pitched at the same capacity as Thomas & Mack (18,000 seats). Crowley wanted 8,000 seats. The compromise was struck at 11,536 seaets. I could get on board with 12,000 seats for GSR Arena, but 15,000, which is probably required to get NCAA Tournament games, is too big.

Today, I made a reservation for two at the Peppermill spa for my wife's birthday in May, so I won't be boycotting any local casino/resort.

And I talked today to Fresno State transfer Elijah Price, who committed to Nevada last Friday, and he raved about La Strada's mushroom ravioli he ate on his recruiting visit to Reno, which included a stay at The Row. So, Nevada's not boycotting any local casino/resort.

Here's what I can tell you: Representatives of the Coalition — the group of resorts/casinos opposed to using public money on the GSR's potential $1 billion development — wrote a letter to GSR owner Alex Meruelo congratulating him on the project after the September 2023 announcement. It wasn't until everybody learned 13 months later that the GSR would try and tap into around $90 million in tax-increment financing (TIF) that those other resorts became concerned and eventually in opposition.

TIF funding in Reno has never been used on a casino property before. The Reno-Sparks Convention Center, National Bowling Stadium, Reno Events Center and Reno Ballroom all got public money but not TIF funding. I'm not fully clear on Greater Nevada Field, which I believe was supposed to be funded by a rental-car tax and has since been paid for in part via property-tax abatements, which is essentially what TIF is. But TIF is supposed to only be used for "blighted properties," which I think everybody agrees would not accurately describe GSR's property despite it falling a redevelopment district.

Would GSR Arena being built hurt the downtown casinos since Wolf Pack games wouldn't be played at Lawlor Events Center adjacent to downtown? I think so. Would it hurt the Nugget, which would have new competition for its outdoor amphitheater in the battle for concerts that need 9,000-plus seats? I think so. So, I would agree this opposition is unlikely to be 100 percent altruistic. But I also think people have legitimate concern that this could be bad policy and set a precedent for non-blighted projects qualifying for TIF funding. I was 100 percent on board when it was assumed this was a private-money deal; since the Raiders got a huge handout to build Allegiant Stadium, I've advocated against public-money handouts for billionaires.

If the GSR gets $90 million in public money and the full $1 billion is spent, that would be the lowest percent of public money used on a stadium when compared to Allegiant Stadium, the A's stadium, Lee's Family Forum, the Tahoe Blue Events Center, Greater Nevada Field and Las Vegas Ballpark. Lawlor and Thomas & Mack were both 100 percent publicly funded but done so on state property rather than private property. Only T-Mobile Arena was 100 percent privately financed among recent stadium/arena projects. I would want a full vetting of the deal, which the Coalition's letter should assure is forthcoming, which is great as we don't know how much of this projected new sales tax is displaced sales tax. With a project of this size, the more scrutiny the better. And if that scrutiny leads to GSR getting approved for TIF funding, Northern Nevada should at least feel comfortable the situation was fully cross-checked.

I was at 85 percent after the Hunden Partners presentation in February led to the realization TIF money was not available past 2035 when the GSR was asking for TIF money through 2055. That had to be remedied by a state law passing the Legislature, which the GSR said at the time it didn't have a plan to draft a bill. However, that bill has since been drafted and should alleviate that concern. So, I'll go 95 percent. It just comes down to get that pledge of up to $90 million in public money. At this rate, I think it will be approved.

I wrote a full breakdown of Elijah Price's game here as Nevada picked up the Fresno State transfer. There's a lot to like. The offensive efficiency needs to get a lot better, but he's a good-sized athlete who plays hard and brings a high floor with his defense and rebounding. It's worth reading the full breakdown, but I'll go 8 out of 10.

1) Nevada was 25th in the KenPom rankings in 2018 and 27th in 2019. Can the Wolf Pack get a top-30 KenPom team again? Yes. It won't be easy given the financial landscape, and perhaps, more importantly, the dilution of the Mountain West post-2026, which will make having a top-50 strength of schedule impossible. That's the bigger issue, in my view, since the MW usually produces top-30 KenPom teams. In 2023-24, there were two top-30 KenPom teams from the MW in San Diego State (22nd) and New Mexico (29th). The year before that, there were two in SDSU (14th) and Utah State (28th). The year before that, one in SDSU (25th). The year before that, one in SDSU (30th). The MW generally produces top-30 KenPom teams, although that MW is about to go away. By the way, Nevada's best team ever, per KenPom, was the 2004 team that finished 20th in KenPom. I'll give Nevada a 10 percent shot of a top-30 KenPom team in the next 10 seasons.

2) Did you actually have eight steals or was the scorekeeper counting overthrows and passed balls as steals? It's almost impossible to get eight steals in a game. You'd have to get four singles — where's the power, my guy? — and then steal second and third each time because nobody is stealing home if the pitcher is paying attention. Was your team playing a 2A team or something? But if you really did steal eight bags in a game, that record is not being broken. The NIAA's official record book doesn't include steals, likely due to the ambiguity of steals vs. passed balls/wild pitches.

In 2030, Sac State has the following odds of conference affiliation:

* 40 percent in the Mountain West

* 25 percent in the Pac-12

* 15 percent other FBS conference

* 10 percent FBS independent

* 5 percent has returned to FCS

* 5 percent asteroid/other apocalypse has wiped out human race

It's a good question, but such an outcome would have a minimal but non-zero impact on Nevada's recruiting. While the Wolf Pack does recruit the Sacramento area, only two players on Nevada's 2024 roster grew up within a one-drive of Sacramento. If you move that to a two-hour drive, there were only six players. So, it's not a heavy recruiting area, and many kids want to leave their hometown in college but not be too far away, so Nevada could be a good alternative for Sacramento-area players who fit that mold. I don't think it'd be a huge deal.

I like Florida, but ESPN's analytics give Houston a 65.4 percent chance of winning, so the bet seems to be the Cougars on the moneyline. KenPom likes Houston by a smidge, too. I'll go Houston 70-68, which would mean a Mountain West school (San Diego State) beat this year's national champs (a 73-70 overtime win in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas in November). Houston is 26-1 in its last 27 games with the lone loss by one in overtime to Texas Tech, an Elite 8 team that should have beaten Florida in that round (it was up nine points with less than 3 minutes to play). Houston seems underrated.

Conference tournaments offering NIL is an interesting thought, but if it happens, it won't be the Mountain West that does it. The MW doesn't have that kind of money. The Power 4 does.

As for the College Basketball Crown, it was a successful first season. And if the CBC continues to up the NIL money it's offering, it will get a better field than the NIT. In fact, it might have gotten a better field than the NIT this year. The Crown could kill the NIT eventually. And it would make sense to have a non-conference Crown and postseason Crown. The non-conference tournaments that start offering NIL will get the best fields. It used to be travel location that wooed teams. Now it's cash.

The only flag-inspired uniforms are the Nevada basketball ones. Those football uniforms were conceptual by a UNR student who sent them to me, and I did a story on it. I could see football doing a flag-style uniform. But this question also reminds me Nevada's Adidas contract is up on June 30, less than three months from now. I should probably put in a public-records request to see if that was extended. Seems like a deal would be done by now. Sending FOIA now.

70 percent — Adidas

24 percent — Nike

5 percent — Under Armour

1 percent — LA Gear

The NCAA already has academic incentives that some schools have opted into. Those are Alston payments, which can award up to $5,980 per year to athletes. Nevada has not opted into Alston payments, so it can't pay its athletes this kind of money. More specifically to your question, do I see a time where NCAA athletes are considered employees and don't have to go to school? In the next 10 years, I don't see that happening. I think there will always be a "school" element even if it's a charade in the revenue sports. I am, however, questioning if the NCAA can even set eligibility standards for its athletes. It just caved on not counting junior-college seasons as years of eligibility and now is facing challenges over whether it can limited athletes to four years of eligibility at the Division I level. Now, that's a mess.

1) Football is a really expensive sport, so I doubt TMCC adds that anytime in the near future. I know Nevada and Hug High alum Duke Williams has pushed for that, and I think it'd be great to offer local kids a chance to play JuCo ball so close to home. But the expense is massive.

2) I don't know the behind-the-scenes details, so it's hard for me to say. I will admit Troy Taylor was my preferred candidate when Nevada's football job was open in 2021. That gig went to Ken Wilson instead. I asked a Wolf Pack insider if Taylor was considered. That person said Taylor was talked to but was "a weird guy." So, the Stanford allegations did not catch me by complete surprise.

3) The UC Davis contract, which I first reported, offers the Aggies "first right of consideration/application if the MW elevates a football program from the FCS level." That doesn't mean UC Davis gets in if it wants in before any other FCS program. But the Mountain West is already elevating its athletic department to the FBS level, so it would make sense for the Aggies to get a football offer, if it invested correctly, before Sac State. Now, if Sac State actually builds everything it says it's going to build, that could change the formula and put the Hornets first in line. Having two schools less than 20 miles away in the same conference isn't ideal, but it's doable if Sac State delivers on its promises. I would have offered Sac State a spot in the MW before UC Davis.

Officials let more go during the NCAA Tournament. It's a tough balance. Basketball is a physical game, and you could call lots of fouls. But there are too many free throws in the game as is. I'd prefer four 10-minute quarters with free throws on the fifth foul, ala the women's game. Then you can officiate the game properly without too many fouls shots.

The ironman streaks. No MLB player is breaking Cal Ripken Jr.'s record of 2,632 straight games played. That's 16 straight seasons and some change. Ditto with AC Green's record of 1,192 straight NBA games. That's 14 straight seasons and some change.

1) McQueen High alum Robby Snelling's brief minor-league journey has been interesting as he was a consensus top-50 prospect in the minors after a stellar 2023 (11-3, 1.82 ERA) before a rough 2024 (4-10, 5.15 ERA) knocked him off those lists and almost an afterthought on prospect rankings after he was traded by San Diego to Miami. His first start in 2025 is a positive first step for sure. It's east to forget Snelling just turned 21 in December, so he's still really young for Double-A (3.2 years younger than the average player in the Southern League). He has plenty of time to rebound. The biggest thing prospect writers noted last year is Snelling's stuff was down two to three miles per hour, which also impacted the bite on his breaking ball. That could be because he has now logged 100-plus minor-league innings in back-to-back seasons, with that increased work load potentially taking a couple of ticks off any pitcher. But those writers also rave about Snelling's athleticism and makeup, so this is a big year for Snelling to show his stuff is closer to the 2023 version. He's a big-leaguer as long as he stays healthy, but that stuff returning is a key in him being an impact big-leaguer who can fit in a starting rotation.

2) As for Skylar Hales, last week I'll listed seven Northern Nevada products who could make their MLB debut in 2025, and Hales topped the list. He'll start in Double-A, but he's got a chance to get to the bigs this season. Here's that full list of seven.

A top-10 list of MLB's most underrated players.

10. C Will Smith, Dodgers (hidden key to the Dodgers' success)

9. UTL Tommy Edman, Dodgers (today's best utilityman)

8. SP Logan Webb, Giants (innings are important; he pitches many)

7. 3B Matt Chapman, Giants (defense is important; he's good at that)

6. OF Kyle Tucker, Cubs (should get $400 million-plus this offseason)

5. 3B José Ramírez, Guardians (a future Hall of Famer who isn't treated as such)

4. 2B Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (because nobody cares about the D'Backs)

3. 1B Christian Walker, Astros (because nobody cared about the D'Backs when he was on that team)

2. SP Cole Ragans, Royals (an important piece to winning fantasy baseball championships)

1. DH Yordan Alvarez, Astros (a better hitter than Shohei Ohtani with 1/100th the press)

With a 2024 Dodgers World Series championship ring on our hand, the view is ideal.

Congrats, however, on the 8-1 start. By the way, the Giants had an 8-1 stretch last year and went 80-82. Lots of games left to play.

They have the best record, so I would say undoubtedly, unequivocally yes. I'm a true believer, although I ran into the resident Giants fan at work (this occurred in the bathroom) and I told him, "Nice start." He responded by saying, and I quote, "We haven't played anybody yet." So, he's not a true believer like me.

I don't see Simpson U., out of Redding, Calif., going Division I anytime soon. Given the financial landscape, jumping to D-I doesn't make sense for lower-level athletic departments.

The Aces' starting rotation has the potential to be elite, but that group also is pitching in one of pro baseball's most hitter-friendly ballparks. So, the Aces should hit the ball and should get good pitching given the PCL environment. The Diamondbacks have graduated a lot of top prospects to the big leagues the last couple of years, so that level of elite prospect talent won't be in Reno this year once Jordan Lawlar is promoted. But there's another wave coming soon from the lower levels, likely in 2026 and 2027. Reno should be competitive in the PCL in 2025, as the Aces always are.

No. This year's UConn men's basketball team wasn't at that level. It was impressive the Huskies pushed Florida so hard in the second round. But UConn ranked 32nd in KenPom and NET. It wasn't championship caliber.

I landed some Extenze in a Snuggie party where we got to steal others gifts. I also got a Mike Pizza mini-bobblehead. So, I called it "Piazza Extenze." Weird times.

More importantly, who decided to put these stank trees in my backyard!

See y'all next week!

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. He writes a weekly Monday Mailbag despite it giving him a headache and it taking several hours to write. But people seem to like it, so he does it anyway. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.