National Weather Service Senior Hydrologist Glen Merrill said the Wasatch Back’s hydrologic outlook is positive right now. That’s largely because the area had above normal snowpack for the third year in a row.
“It's been almost three decades since we've seen three years in a row of above normal snowpack,” Merrill said on KPCW’s “Local News Hour” Wednesday, April 16. “Now, that being said, we were just slightly above normal.”
Merrill said this season’s storm tracks favored the Wasatch Range and brought beneficial moisture. Many Wasatch Back watersheds, including Weber, upper Provo and East Canyon, saw snowpack totals near normal or 110% of normal before the most recent melt.
When combined, he said, a third year of an above-normal snowpack and 2023’s record-breaking winter have helped the Wasatch Back become drought-free.
“Much of western Summit County, including the Park City area, is drought-free, one of the only areas in the state right now,” he said.
However, Utah’s snow is melting earlier than normal. The Beehive State’s peak snowpack conditions typically occur the first week of April, but this year’s peak was on March 23 with a near-normal statewide average.
Merrill said an early peak means a less efficient runoff season. It’s best when mountains hold onto the snow until late in the season and then melts quickly. That helps as much water as possible make it to Utah reservoirs. Moist soils also help with efficient runoff as they won’t hold on to as much water.
But Merrill said snow is already melting and the state went into the 2024-25 winter season with drier than normal soils.
“October was record-breaking heat, the hottest October on record. What that did was dry out our soils at a period of time where we're looking to get those early fall rain events to moisten our soils,” he said.
In Wasatch County, the Yellow Lake Fire also contributed to dry soil conditions.
However, Merrill still expects Wasatch Back reservoirs to fill up or get close to full this spring.
The early melt also means a longer warm season and possibly a longer wildfire season. Merrill said wildfire danger will depend on how quickly the state heats up and dries out going into late May and June.
“Right now, predictive services looking at large wildfire potential, they are not keying in on the Park City area as being an area that should be seeing abnormal fire conditions compared to normal,” he said.
Southern Utah, on the other hand, is expected to be at greater risk for large wildfires, especially because the southern parts of the state have critically low snowpack.
One positive of a slower melt is a decreased risk of flooding. According to the Utah Department of Public Safety, flooding is the number one disaster risk in Utah. But there is a less than 10% chance of flooding this spring.
However, Merrill said locals should still be cautious around rivers and streams this spring.
“The water is moving so swiftly and just within 24 hours or so, that water was snow, so it's extremely cold. ,” he said. “If you fall into that water, the risk of hypothermia, that happens within minutes.”
Peak flow conditions occur during May. Merrill said families should keep a close eye on kids and pets around waterways, especially the Weber and Provo rivers.
